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The Fed held at 3.75 to 4.00%. Your rate sheet still has a decision in it.

The Federal Reserve left its target at 3.75 to 4.00% on October 28, after raising it in September. A hold does not settle this month's pricing. It moves the question from "what will the Fed do" to "what will our competitors do, and what does each choice cost us."

Audare AI ResearchPublished October 29, 20263 minute read

What did the Fed decide?

The vote was 10 to 2. The two members who dissented, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, wanted a quarter-point increase. The statement's view of prices was short: "Inflation remains elevated." The next decision is December 9, with new projections. In September, the median projection put the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and again at the end of 2027.

Where do deposit rates sit going into the decision?

ProductFDIC national rate, Oct 19Treasury, same term, Oct 28
Savings0.38%
Money market0.63%
12-month certificate1.76%4.47%
60-month certificate1.41%4.85%

The national rates sit far below what the same money earns in Treasuries. And the national 60-month certificate rate is lower than the 12-month, while Treasury yields rise with term.

Treasury yields rise with term. Certificates peak at one year.

0%1%2%3%4%5%1 mo3 mo6 mo1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5 yrTreasury yield, 1 mo: 4.07%Treasury yield, 3 mo: 4.18%Treasury yield, 6 mo: 4.32%Treasury yield, 1 yr: 4.47%Treasury yield, 2 yr: 4.67%Treasury yield, 3 yr: 4.80%Treasury yield, 5 yr: 4.85%FDIC national rate, 1 mo: 0.23%FDIC national rate, 3 mo: 1.14%FDIC national rate, 6 mo: 1.39%FDIC national rate, 1 yr: 1.76%FDIC national rate, 2 yr: 1.55%FDIC national rate, 3 yr: 1.39%FDIC national rate, 4 yr: 1.31%FDIC national rate, 5 yr: 1.41%Treasury 4.85%FDIC national rate, 12-month certificate: 1.76%1.41% at five years
Sources: FDIC national rates as of October 19, 2026; US Treasury par yields, October 28, 2026 (no four-year Treasury, dashed). Terms evenly spaced, not to scale.
See the numbers
TermFDIC national rate (Oct 19)Treasury (Oct 28)
1 mo0.23%4.07%
3 mo1.14%4.18%
6 mo1.39%4.32%
1 yr1.76%4.47%
2 yr1.55%4.67%
3 yr1.39%4.80%
4 yr1.31%
5 yr1.41%4.85%

What this suggests. Longer certificates are cheap for now. If your competitors start paying up for term money, that is where the next move shows first.

What moves after a decision, and how fast?

Rate sheets do not move overnight. They move over days and weeks, and not every institution moves. We will report what moved as the data comes in.

What this suggests. The Fed has made its call for October. Your committee's call is still open, and waiting for competitors to move means pricing on last month's sheet.

What should your committee ask this month?

  1. Where do we sit, and does the gap matter?
  2. Which balances would a change touch?
  3. What does it cost, and what must it earn?
  4. Is there a cheaper way we can deliver?
  5. When do we look again?

Holding a rate is a decision too. Price it like one.

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